The three seats Labour will forfeit if Sadiq Kahn doesn’t drop ULEZ enlargement

Rishi Sunak narrowly averted changing into the primary Prime Minister in 55 years to lose three seats in by-elections in a single day.

In line with expectations, the Conservatives misplaced Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats, in addition to Selby and Ainsty – in a landslide 23.7 % swing to Labour. So far so good for the events vying to dethrone the Tories in 2024.

In Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in West London, nonetheless, the Opposition candidate tempted simply 6.7 % of voters away from the get together in energy, falling simply in need of pinching the seat.

Victor Steve Tuckwell was fast to apportion blame: “The message from Uxbridge and South Ruislip is clear – Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election, and it was his damaging and costly ULEZ policy that did it.”

The latest by Electoral Calculus suggests the Tories are sure to lose 265 seats on the subsequent general election. But if Labour enable their Mayor’s hated ULEZ enlargement plans to go forward this Autumn, what number of seats may they be sacrificing?

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The brainchild of Mr Johnson again when he was mayor, the ULEZ cost immediately consists of a £12.50 charge per day for non-compliant autos – sometimes pre-2015 diesel and pre-2006 petrol vehicles.

In 2021, Mr Khan expanded its attain to the North and South Circulars. On August 29, it’s set to burgeon out to cowl all of London’s boroughs.

Of the 73 parliamentary constituencies within the capital, 37 are presently affected partially or wholly by the zone. The enlargement would impression all of them.

Labour’s enduring reputation within the coronary heart of the cosmopolitan metropolis means most of those seats are occupied by their MPs. On the outskirts, nonetheless, 17 Tory-held seats – excluding Uxbridge and South Ruislip – shall be up for grabs subsequent yr within the midst of the ULEZ fiasco.

If Labour achieves the type of monumental swing it pulled off in Selby and Ainsty, seven of those are sure to go its approach.

If, alternatively, the get together is barely capable of replicate its lesser Uxbridge and South Ruislip efficiency, this quantity falls to a few.

In this manner, on account of the Labour mayor’s ULEZ coverage, his get together is doubtlessly forfeiting Wimbledon, Croydon South, Finchley and Golders Green, and Harrow East.

Pushback in opposition to the plans in these areas is powerful. Back in January, Mayor of Croydon Jason Perry stated his council would do “everything it can” to dam the venture. Leader of Harrow Council Paul Osborn later echoed this sentiment, deeming the expansion the “wrong solution at the wrong time.”

But Tory peer and pollster Lord Hayward advised the Uxbridge by-election upset had ramifications stretching far past, into London’s satellite tv for pc seats.

He claimed: “ULEZ has implications for a string of marginals on the eastern side of London, Stevenage, Thurrock, Harlow, Dartford, Gravesend, so the Labour Party will be looking very carefully at the implications not only in Greater London but outside.”

Back in May, Gareth Johnson, Tory MP for Dartford, stated the problem has been developing repeatedly on the doorstep: “We’re finding Labour supporters who are not going to vote Labour because of ULEZ.”

The Conservatives presently get pleasure from a 35-point lead in Dartford, nonetheless, so even a significant shift is unlikely to carry it inside the Opposition’s sights.

In his victory speech, Mr Tuckwell stated: “This wasn’t the campaign Labour expected, and Keir Starmer and his mayor Sadiq Khan need to sit up and listen to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents.”

Senior Labour politicians didn’t refute the brand new MP’s judgement – fairly the other. On BBC Breakfast on Friday morning, Deputy Leader Angela Rayner stated: “People are really concerned about how, during a cost-of-living crisis, they’re going to be imposed with a ULEZ charge that they can’t afford.”

Ratcheting up the stress additional, Shadow Justice Secretary Steve Reed later added: “I think those responsible for that policy will need to reflect on what the voters have said and whether there’s an opportunity to change.”

Mr Khan, nonetheless, has stood by his choice, assuring reporters that he nonetheless believed “the policy to expand the Ultra-Low Emission Zone is the right one.”

He stated: “Four million Londoners are already benefiting. What about the other five million in outer London, where there is the largest number of premature deaths?”

Whether the transfer is the correct one for the Labour Party stays to be seen.