Wagner set the stage for ‘fairly actual’ transfer that would spark main disaster in NATO

Wagner Group could have set the stage for an aggressive motion in Poland and Lithuania that would spark chaos inside NATO.

Russian-Ukrainian politician Ilya Ponomarev famous each Moscow and Minsk have made it clear Yevgeny Prigozhin’s paramilitary group is presently not backed by their governments.

This, Mr Ponomarev believes, would make Wagner appear like a sole actor ought to it cross the border with Poland and stop NATO from having the ability to set off Article 5 – its very important precept of collective defence.

Mr Ponomarev, who was a member of the Duma between 2007 and 2016 and sided with Kyiv following the Russian invasion in February 2022, informed Express.co.uk: “The main reason to be bothered by this – quite real – possibility is the fact that Wagner now has perfectly distanced itself from the Kremlin.

“There have been deliberate ‘leaks’ that its commanders have been supplied to affix the Russian army and that they refused; Lukashenko was additionally complaining in public that they’re unmanageable.

“That’s all part of the preparations if the decision to attack will actually be taken.”

The politician thinks Mr Prigozhin stays a “trusted person” by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who “at least is not questioning his personal loyalty”.

Indeed, Mr Prigozhin pressured the short-lived mutiny carried out by Wagner in late June focused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov reasonably than the Kremlin as an entire or Putin.

Mr Ponomarev added a doable Wagner assault could goal an space southwest of the border between Lithuania and Poland additionally touched by Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast – the westernmost space of the Russian Federation.

Known as Suwałki Gap, this 40-mile-long strip of land is of main strategic and army significance as gaining management of it might isolate the Baltic states from the opposite NATO members on the European continent.

Mr Ponomarev mentioned: “I think that Putin’s idea is to attack the Suwałki Gap, so that Lithuania and Poland will call for Article 5 but the Western countries will point out that Wagner is not a state actor and turn the request down. And this fact will trigger a major crisis in NATO.

“Wagner doesn’t want to carry the place for lengthy – simply sufficient time to impress the scandal.”

Tensions between Belarus, which is hosting thousands of Wagner troops officially to have them train the country’s army, and Poland spiked in recent days.

During a meeting with Putin last month, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Mr Prigozhin’s men were asking to go West on an “tour” to Poland’s Warsaw and Rzeszow – a claim which rang alarm bells across Europe.

Reports, denied by Mr Lukashenko, have claimed in late July that some 100 Wagner fighters had relocated to the Belarusian city of Grodno, just kilometres away from the borders with Lithuania and Poland.

And on August 2, the Polish Ministry of Defence said Belarusian helicopters had crossed into the Białowieża area – a claim rejected by Minsk – which prompted Warsaw to deploy closer to the border more than 1,000 of its troops.

On August 3, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki issued a warning over attempts to destabilise NATO.

Speaking during a meeting at the Suwałki Gap with Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda, Mr Morawiecki said: “Russia and Belarus are rising their quite a few provocations and intrigues to be able to destabilise the border of NATO’s jap flank.”

Despite these raised tensions, the Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House John Kirby said this week said the US “is not conscious” of “any particular risk posed by Wagner to Poland or to any of our NATO allies”.

He continued: “Of course, we’re dedicated to Article 5 and, because the president mentioned, to defending each inch of NATO territory. But once more – no indication that Wagner poses any risk to the Alliance.”

Similarly, in early August the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said “Wagner forces in Belarus pose no army risk to Poland (or Ukraine, for that matter) till and except they’re re-equipped with mechanised tools”.