Sadiq Khan faces tighter race than Labour do nationally

Aug 22, 2023 at 11:59 AM

In phrases of the query “do you view individual politicians favourably or unfavourably”, he has a -12 per cent ranking (that’s, extra individuals view him unfavourably than favourably).

His Conservative opponent, Susan Hall, has a internet “favourable” ranking of +1, although 57 per cent of Londoners “don’t know” — suggesting a majority haven’t but heard of her. The Conservatives might want to act on this drawback if she is to have an opportunity. The Mayor is extra fashionable than Rishi Sunak (-38 per cent) although much less so than Sir Keir Starmer (-4 per cent).

YouGov requested one other query in a current poll about whether or not Mr Khan “is doing well or badly as Mayor”. From 2017 to 2021, he had steady — if declining — scores exhibiting he was perceived by a majority of Londoners as doing “well”. However, in January 2022, “badly” overtook “well” by 48 per cent to 38 per cent. An April 2023 ballot confirmed a 50 to 35 margin, which was not good news for City Hall.

The new analysis exhibits Mr Khan is most popular by internal London voters (47 per cent beneficial to 42 per cent unfavourable, internet +5) however considered “unfavourably” within the outer boroughs (58 per cent unfavourable to 34 per cent beneficial, internet -24). He is way extra more likely to be seen as “favourable” by youthful voters than older ones, being most preferred by 25 to 49-year-olds. But amongst lower-income social teams, he’s considered way more unfavourably than favourably (59 per cent to 30 per cent, internet -29).

Over 60 per cent of London’s inhabitants stay within the outer boroughs, which means that for each the mayoral and meeting elections, the YouGov outcomes most likely indicate a tighter London race in 2024 than nationwide polling, with Labour usually 15 to twenty per cent forward of the Conservatives, presently suggests.

As in 2021, the Conservatives will think about profitable extra voters in outer boroughs, notably among the many over-50s and lower-income households. Shaun Bailey, the Conservative candidate in that election, gained over a major variety of minority voters in outer boroughs. Mr Khan shall be hoping any Ulez impact will disappear as soon as the system is operational subsequent week.