Nearly 100,000 fewer prime A-level grades could possibly be awarded this 12 months, professional warns
There could possibly be practically 100,000 fewer prime A-level grades awarded this 12 months in contrast with 2022, an schooling professional has prompt.
Professor Alan Smithers’ report says nearly 50,000 college students may miss out on getting the A* and A grades they may have anticipated final 12 months if this summer time’s grading returns to pre-pandemic requirements.
He predicts round 10% of grades can be an A* and round 27.5% can be an A this 12 months, in contrast with 2022 when 14.6% of grades had been an A* and 36.4% an A.
In 2019, 7.8% of grades had been an A* and 25.5% had been an A.
The authorities has stated the variety of A* and A grades awarded in England ought to fall again to pre-pandemic ranges as exams return to regular.
Prof Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research on the University of Buckingham, expects the variety of prime A-level grades to fall considerably however not by fairly as a lot as the federal government requested, as was the case final 12 months.
The professional says academics developed a “taste for awarding top grades” in some topics through the COVID pandemic which markers can be “reluctant to relinquish”.
He stated: “During the teacher assessment years, many students and their parents will have developed unreasonable expectations.
“Whatever the extent to which prime grades are introduced down this 12 months, the drop will result in a number of disappointment and possibly an enormous improve within the variety of appeals.”
Prof Smithers additionally stated disruption from instructor strikes might have led examination boards to be extra lenient.
He stated the proportion of prime grades in performing arts and sensible topics elevated sharply through the pandemic when grades had been primarily based on instructor assessments.
That determine rose much less steeply for science and maths as a result of pupils learning these topics had been already getting extra prime grades earlier than the pandemic.
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However, final 12 months extra prime grades had been awarded for music and performing arts than physics and chemistry regardless of the return of exams, suggesting a “profound change” which can make it tougher to chop the variety of prime grades awarded again to 2019 ranges.
This development led to ladies receiving way more A* grades than boys, who had beforehand had the sting as a result of way more of them studied topics the place pupils can “manifestly amass right answers”.
If extra A* grades proceed to be awarded for arts and humanities than earlier than the pandemic, this might imply boys don’t regain their lead.
Pupils in Northern Ireland anticipated to get finest outcomes
Prof Smithers stated he expects pupils in Northern Ireland to get the very best outcomes, as they’ve finished for a few years, adopted by these in Wales after which England.
A Department for Education spokesperson stated: “This year, GCSE and A-level grading is largely returning to normal, in line with plans set out by Ofqual [which regulates exams] almost two years ago, to make sure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.
“This means nationwide outcomes are anticipated to be just like these in pre-pandemic years, and a scholar ought to be simply as prone to obtain a selected grade this 12 months as they might have been earlier than the pandemic.
“The number of top grades also has no bearing on the number of university places available.”
A spokeswoman for Ofqual stated: “This year we expect exam grades to go back to similar levels to 2019, which was the last year before the pandemic.”