Boris Johnson would win by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip – new polling

Jun 06, 2023 at 9:18 AM

Boris Johnson would win a by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip if one was held tomorrow, a pollster has advised.

The former Prime Minister could possibly be pressured to face a vote in his London constituency beneath the worst-case situation referring to the Privileges Committee inquiry into whether or not he lied to Parliament over Covid rule-breaking in No 10.

But new polling by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft exhibits Mr Johnson – who was pressured out of No 10 final yr following a sequence of scandals – is on target to win 50 % of the vote within the seat he has held since 2015.

Labour’s Danny Beales on 33 %, Lib Dem Blaise Baquiche is third on six % and the Greens are on 5 %.

The ballot of 936 adults in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was carried out by phone between May 18 and June 2.

Lord Ashcroft conceded that constituency polls have “rather a mixed history” and that projections primarily based on nationwide traits counsel Labour is ready to take the west London seat.

He additionally mentioned a big-named candidate from a minor get together such because the Greens or Reform UK may “change the game locally”.

Writing for Conservative Home, Lord Ashcroft mentioned: “And who knows what else might happen in Boris World before any by-election comes to pass, if it does?”

But the pollster insisted there are “good reasons to accept the picture at face value”.

Lord Ashcroft mentioned Mr Johnson – who led the Tories to a landslide majority within the 2019 basic election – is “able to command extraordinary affection and loyalty”.

Referring to Mr Johnson stepping down from his Henley seat to be London Mayor, he added: “During the 2008 Henley by-election campaign, when I oversaw Conservative Party’s internal polling, one of our early concerns was that local voters might take umbrage at Johnson’s decision to leave them for his tilt at the London mayoralty – but not a bit of it.

“We had by no means come throughout such a preferred MP and his soon-to-be former constituents wished their native hero nothing however success.

“That was in a very different era, of course – but 15 years later in Uxbridge, could it be that the more is thrown at Johnson, the more his voters want to rally around?”

If Mr Johnson fails to persuade MPs on the Privileges Committee that he didn’t intentionally mislead the Commons, he could possibly be discovered to have dedicated contempt of Parliament.

A suspension of greater than 10 days may end in a dangerous by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.

The full House of Commons would vote on any suggestions.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has mentioned he’ll let MPs make their very own selections “as individuals” if the Commons is requested to approve a punishment for his predecessor.

Meanwhile, there have been ideas Mr Johnson is not going to attempt to defend the west London constituency and can search a safer seat on the subsequent basic election, presumably Henley, the Tory stronghold he beforehand represented.