Stats watchdog launches investigation into authorities’s asylum backlog declare

The UK’s stats watchdog has launched an investigation into the federal government’s declare that it cleared the legacy backlog of asylum claims in 2023.

Rishi Sunak and his administration faced criticism on Tuesday for saying they’d cleared all of the functions to stay within the UK by asylum seekers made earlier than 28 June 2022.

In complete, 4,537 claims from the backlog nonetheless wanted a call as of Tuesday – however Mr Sunak’s spokesman mentioned since these had been reviewed, the federal government considers them “cleared”.

Now, the Office for Statistics Regulation has launched an investigation into the announcement.

In complete, the federal government had 92,000 claims to handle from earlier than June 2022 to satisfy the pledge made by Mr Sunak.

Numbers printed by the Home Office confirmed that, in complete, 112,138 preliminary asylum choices have been made between 1 January and 28 December, in contrast with 31,766 in all of 2022.

Some 86,800 of those choices have been for legacy instances, whereas, 25,338 have been for non-legacy instances.

In complete, 51,469 asylum functions have been granted, whereas 25,550 have been refused – that means 67% have been accepted. But it additionally implies that 35,119 “non-substantive” choices have been made.

According to the Home Office, that is the place the federal government withdraws the declare, it’s paused, declared void or the applicant failed to finish part of the appliance.

The 35,119 determine is greater than two and a half occasions the 13,093 examples of non-substantive claims recorded in 2022.

The authorities has mentioned that the remaining 4,537 extra advanced instances sometimes contain “asylum seekers presenting as children – where age verification is taking place; those with serious medical issues; or those with suspected past convictions, where checks may reveal criminality that would bar asylum”.

Read extra:
Govt’s statistics make clear Sunak’s backlog claim isn’t true
Asylum backlog: Old cases nearly cleared but new ones racking up

Sky News understands the OSR probe was launched on account of a criticism, and the preliminary investigations will take various weeks.

While the OSR can ask for added info from the Home Office, it doesn’t have the facility to compel knowledge to be offered. However, it may rescind its kitemark from the Home Office’s releases.

The OSR has been participating with the Home Office over the long-term about how they use knowledge.

In a letter responding to a criticism final 12 months, Ed Humpherson, the director normal for regulation on the OSR, mentioned officers on the Home Office had “actively engaged” with the watchdog in regards to the division’s knowledge practices.

He did, nonetheless, notice that whereas “positive developments” have been made on the official stage, the OSR was nonetheless “concerned that the continued misuse of these data by ministers” may “undermine public trust” within the division.

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The prime minister was also rebuked in December 2023 for claiming “debt is falling” by Sir Robert Chote, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA).

Number 10 argued Mr Sunak was talking a couple of projection which confirmed debt would fall as a proportion of GDP by 2028.

Sir Robert mentioned “the average person in the street” would have interpreted the remark to imply “debt was already falling or that the government’s policy decisions had lowered it at fiscal events – neither of which is the case”.

He added: “This has clearly been a source of confusion and may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis in this area.”