Recep Erdogan has comfortably gained the Presidential election in Turkey in opposition to the chances and it has confirmed once more that the politics of Brexit is a successful components.

The conventional political rule is that there are solely two messages which work in election campaigns - "stability" or "change".

The thought is that relying on the state of the nation, one or different of the competing narratives will trump the opposite relying on the financial and political circumstances.

In America each Trump and Obama had been "change" candidates in 2008 and 2016 - which explains why - uncomfortably for the Democrats and left - so lots of the identical folks voted for them.

In France, Emmanuel Macron has, regardless of inventing a brand new political occasion, been a "stability" candidate for the French institution.

But on this Turkish Presidential election Erdogan has efficiently been a "stability" candidate and has arguably confirmed the rule guide has been rewritten.

READ MORE: Erdogan to 'chip Russia's failing power' as Turkish voters head to polls today

When Express.co.uk spoke to senior sources from Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK) forward of the primary spherical of the Presidential election they thought his possibilities had been within the stability - and there was a great likelihood he could be defeated.

After round 20 years as Turkey's President, together with surviving an tried navy coup, it appeared that every one the conventional indicators for defeat had been in place.

An appalling pure catastrophe with the earthquake which hit each Turkey and Syria had seen some cruiticism of his authorities however most significantly the economic system was in a large number.

At one level Erdogan had even declared battle formally on the worldwide markets - in case you keep in mind Liz Truss in impact tried one thing comparable and final 49 days.

More to the purpose the opposition for the primary time in a long time was united behind a essential candidate Kemal Kılıcdaroglu and he was favoured to win - the same tactic was tried and failed within the final Hungarian election in opposition to Viktor Orban's ruling occasion.

Indeed, the same old leftwing shops such because the Guardian and BBC had been already writing Erdogan's political obituary - however as soon as once more they had been improper (once more).

Similar claims have been made about different so-called robust males politicians like Viktor Orban in Hungary or Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel and have additionally confirmed to be improper as voters on the poll field supporteed them.

Erdogan was even hated by the left regardless of the actual fact he had a way more beneficiant aproach to refugees. His essential opponent needed to ship all of them again to Syria.

So it was that two weeks in the past on May 14 Erdogan all however sealed victory with 49.5 % of the vote, 5 % forward of his chief rival.

Because he had not received greater than 50 % there was a run off yesterday however the consequence was not doubtful.

Far from being out on his ear, the 69-year-old Erdogan has 5 extra years. But why?

When Express.co.uk spoke to a senior AK consultant in London final week, a form of unofficial ambassador for the occasion, his temper from a couple of weeks was positively lifted and he was happy that his President had been compelled to enter a second spherical.

He mentioned: "At least this kills off the claim that he [Erdogan] is a dictator. What dictator would allow an election to go into a second round?

"The accusation was all the time nonsense however now we will see he might be pretty elected."

There are a number of reasons that Erdogan won but one of them is related to what helped Brexit win in the EU referendum back in 2016.

Erdogan's critics, like Trump's, Orban's and Netanyahu's hate the strong man image but also see him and those others as a threat to the globalist agenda.

They are invariably described as "nationalists" or "populists" when their opponents are being polite.

But one comment was true about Erdogan as it was about these other maligned figures.

"There is little question in folks's minds that he'll put the pursuits of his nation first."

This was demonstated by the push to allow Finland and Sweden into NATO where Erdogan resisted giving his assent because they are harbouring what many in Turkey consider to be supporters of Kurdish terrorists.

In fact, Turkey still has not agreed to Sweden joining the defence bloc, much to everyone else's chagrin.

The idea that a leader is on the side of his country's interests and therefore its people is a powerful one.

It explains why Trump's Make America Great Again message is seeing him emerge as the favourite to return to the White House and it is the same sentiment that drove both his victory and the "take again management" message of Brexit in 2016.

The real divide now is not left versus right, or change versus stability, it is between those who harken to global institutions and those who put their country first.

But this lesson seems to have been forgotten by the Tories.

Rishi Sunak's government has taken the traditional route of the Conservative Party to favour the globalist approach.

This has ended up with a number of deals which the Brexiteers in his own party are furious about because they harm the interests of the UK.

That includes a Windsor Framework for Northern Ireland which gives the EU perpetual power over part of the UK that may stretch further into the rest of it.

There is the agreement on not lowering corporation tax below 15 percent.

Then there is the probability that the UK will cede power to the largely discredited World Health Organisation to control lockdowns and health policies in pandemics.

None of these things represent putting British interests first and all go against the ethos of Brexit.

Nobody is saying Sunak should turn himself into a strong man authoritarian - that definitely would not go down well in the UK.

But perhaps, for all his failings on the economy and policies, Erdogan's victory should be a wake up call to Sunak and the Tories that what ensured Brexit gained in 2016 may guarantee them victory in opposition to Starmer subsequent 12 months.