The power worth cap is about to stay greater than £1,000 increased than the typical invoice earlier than the COVID pandemic, based on a closely-watched forecast.
Ahead of the trade regulator's dedication on the value cap stage due subsequent week, energy analysis specialist Cornwall Insight stated it noticed the cap for a typical family on the equal of £2,053 per 12 months from July-September.
That was down from the £3,280 stage set by Ofgem for March-June and mirrored persevering with falls in wholesale power prices, notably for gasoline, over the 12 months up to now which accelerated as winter temperatures gave means.
The worth cap doesn't at present apply due to assist for power payments from the federal government.
However, the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), which limits a typical family's power invoice to £2,500 equal per 12 months, concludes on the finish of June.
Household payments will revert to the value cap from then.
The Cornwall Insight modelling reveals a lower of £1,227 from the April cap stage however consultants say the outlook for costs stays clouded by the results of the struggle in Ukraine and home power safety considerations throughout Europe.
"Despite the cap falling from the sky-high prices of the past two years, the figure remains over £1,000 per year more than the price cap levels seen prior to the pandemic", the report stated.
"We don't at present count on payments to return to pre-2020 ranges earlier than the tip of the last decade on the earliest.
"However, we hope to see the reappearance of more competitive fixed-rate energy tariffs as prices begin to stabilise, providing consumers with additional options to manage their energy costs.
"Prices stay topic to wholesale power market volatility, and our reliance on power imports (throughout the winter months) means geopolitical incidents might nonetheless have a big affect on power costs."
Current modelling suggests the cap from October would rise but only by a token amount compared to the bill shocks of the past year.
Energy costs have been the single biggest headache for the global economy since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year exacerbated existing upwards pressure on global oil and gas prices.
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They have fed their means down provide chains to drive up wider manufacturing and transport prices, leaving companies and households on the mercy of rising payments throughout the board.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal marketing consultant at Cornwall Insight stated of the anticipated power payments forward: "Under these predictions, an average consumer would see bills drop by around £450 compared to the existing levels of the EPG, with bills currently predicted to stay relatively stable over the next nine months.
"As many individuals proceed to undergo from the cost-of-living disaster, this may hopefully carry some cautious optimism that the period of exceptionally excessive power payments is behind us."
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