spherical 300,000 fewer prime GCSE grades might be awarded this week in a “shock” to pupils and their dad and mom, it has been steered.

Exams regulator Ofqual has stated a return to pre-pandemic grading means this yr’s nationwide GCSE ends in England might be decrease than final yr and much like ranges in 2019 – the yr earlier than coronavirus.

An schooling knowledgeable has predicted households could discover the “substantial drop” in prime GCSE grades awarded this summer season “hard to accept”, and outcomes day on Thursday “will not be as enjoyable” as throughout the pandemic years.

Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) on the University of Buckingham, has steered there might be round 300,000 fewer entries graded 7 or above in contrast with 2022 if grading requirements return to 2019 ranges.

It comes after Covid-19 led to a rise in prime GCSE grades in 2020 and 2021, with outcomes based mostly on trainer assessments as a substitute of exams.

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This will come as a shock to the pupils and their dad and mom, who could discover the grades that emerge onerous to simply accept given what these within the courses above them had acquired within the previous three years

Prof Smithers stated: “The restoration of the 2019 grade pattern in England will result in another record drop in top GCSE grades as the profligacy of teacher assessment is reversed.

“Although the changes as percentages may not look much, given the huge number of entries, they amount to a substantial drop of some 300,000 top grades.

“This will come as a shock to the pupils and their parents, who may find the grades that emerge hard to accept given what those in the classes above them had received in the preceding three years.”

But he added: “It is necessary because the emergency reliance on teacher assessment raised the number of top awards by 437,964, giving many pupils a false picture of their capabilities.

The return to exams in 2022 reduced the excess by 138,597, leaving more than double that distance to go.”

Last week, some 73,000 fewer prime A-level grades have been awarded in England, Wales and Northern Ireland than final yr as a part of efforts to carry outcomes again right down to pre-pandemic ranges, examination boards stated.

But there have been round 32,000 extra prime grades awarded than in 2019.

There are nonetheless grade protections in place which imply a scholar might be simply as prone to obtain a specific grade this yr as they'd have been earlier than the pandemic

Figures masking GCSE entries from college students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland might be revealed by the Joint Council for Qualifications on Thursday.

While conventional A*-G grades are utilized in Northern Ireland and Wales, in England these have been changed with a 9-1 system, the place 9 is the very best.

A 4 is broadly equal to a C grade, and a 7 is broadly equal to an A.

In Wales and Northern Ireland, GCSE outcomes are anticipated to return to pre-pandemic ranges subsequent yr.

The report predicts that women’ lead over boys in scoring extra prime GCSE grades may slim this yr, however feminine college students will “still remain far ahead”.

Prof Smithers stated: “The under-performance of boys in school examinations tends to be accepted, but it should be treated as a national concern since it indicates that boys are not developing their full potential.

“This is of national importance, because we are not developing the talents of half the population as fully as we could.

“This can only lead to a decline in the nation’s economic competitiveness and ultimately loss of its standing in the world.”

The English Baccalaureate (EBacc) – a Government measure – goals to be sure that pupils take English, maths, science, a humanities topic and a language at GCSE.

The Government’s purpose is to see 90% of pupils in England finding out the EBacc topic mixture at GCSE by 2025.

But the report by CEER suggests “the poor take-up” of recent international languages has meant the Government is way off its goal.

It stated: “If the Government values learning languages, then it should set up an inquiry to clarifying why it is not happening as was hoped.”

Prof Smithers stated: “Without radical change, the percentage achieving EBacc will never increase much beyond where it is now. The idea of establishing this particular set of core subjects appears to be beyond its sell by date.

“I suspect that the EBacc will be left to quietly fade away.”

In the evaluation earlier than GCSE outcomes day, Prof Smithers highlighted the “intriguing” pattern that spiritual research is gaining popularity at GCSE.

He stated: “Its popularity could be because the lessons are there, and the exam is there, and it looks like an easy win.

“Or it could be a consequence of the competition to get into the highly successful faith schools and the importance those schools attach to religious studies.

“Or it could be that pupils really do see it as an opportunity to grapple with life’s fundamental questions.”

An Ofqual spokesperson stated: “This year is the second in the phased return to normal of national exams. This means we expect grades to be similar to those seen in 2019, the last year before the pandemic.

“Because of the disruption students have faced there are still grade protections in place which mean a student will be just as likely to achieve a particular grade this year as they would have been before the pandemic.”

A Department for Education spokesman stated: “This year, GCSE grading is largely returning to normal in line with plans set out by Ofqual almost two years ago, to ensure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.

“For students collecting their results, those opportunities will be greater than ever before thanks to our brand new T-levels, alongside A-levels and other vocational and technical qualifications.

“We will also continue to support pupils through initiatives like the National Tutoring Programme, which is benefiting pupils most in need of support, including those in exam cohorts.”