Comparing the UK financial system with its pre-pandemic dimension has turn into an nearly totemic method of highlighting its sluggish efficiency post-COVID.
It has definitely been a present for Opposition politicians and specifically when - in September final 12 months - the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produced proof that the UK was the one financial system within the G7 group that remained smaller than it was in February 2020.
However, in the present day introduced news that the UK financial system really fared higher within the post-COVID interval than beforehand thought.
The ONS unveiled a collection of revisions for previous GDP progress - affecting each 2020 and 2021.
It mentioned that the UK financial system contracted by 10.4% in the principle pandemic 12 months of 2020 - much less worse than the 11% contraction beforehand reported.
And it mentioned UK GDP grew by 8.7% in 2021 - significantly higher than the beforehand reported progress of seven.6%.
Put collectively, it signifies that on the finish of 2021 - fairly than being 1.2% smaller than it was going into the pandemic as beforehand reported - the UK financial system was really 0.6% larger.
Some will say that that is all simply rear-view mirror stuff and does not likely matter.
But it does.
Even in its most up-to-date estimates for quarterly progress, the ONS was suggesting that, throughout the three months to the top of June, the UK financial system remained 0.2% smaller than it was throughout the last three months of 2019, the final full quarter earlier than the pandemic struck.
Carry these revisions throughout to the most recent knowledge although, and it signifies that, fairly than being on the backside of the G7, the UK's financial restoration post-pandemic was effectively forward of Germany and never far behind these achieved by France and Italy.
The Treasury was additionally fast to level out that, as of the top of 2021, the UK's restoration trailed solely these of the US and Canada within the G7.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt mentioned: "The fact that the UK recovered from the pandemic much faster than thought shows that once again those determined to talk down the British economy have been proved wrong.
"There are many battles nonetheless to win, most of all in opposition to inflation so we are able to ease price of dwelling pressures on households. But if we follow the plan we are able to look ahead to wholesome progress which in response to the IMF can be sooner than Germany, France, and Italy in the long run."
The ONS defined the fairly dramatic upward revision thus: "These revisions are mainly because we have richer data from our annual surveys and administrative data, we are now able to measure costs incurred by businesses (intermediate consumption) directly and we can adjust for prices (deflation) at a far more detailed level."
Part of the revision will be defined by the truth that the ONS now has a extra detailed understanding of how a lot folks have been being paid within the 2021-22 monetary 12 months following the provision of extra up-to-date data from HM Revenue & Customs. More up-to-date data on family spending throughout 2021, for instance on telecoms companies, has additionally been integrated into the evaluation of GDP.
Put collectively, these led to some fairly dramatic upgrades in elements of the companies sector, which makes up four-fifths of UK GDP. The ONS now thinks the companies sector as an entire grew by 10.9% in 2021, method forward of the earlier estimate of seven%, which is a fairly extraordinary upward revision.
The largest contributors to that, in response to the ONS, was from the wholesale and retail commerce, and repairs to automobiles and bikes specifically.
Another contributor was lodging and meals companies, which is now reckoned to have grown by 31.3% in 2021, up from the earlier estimate of 30.9%.
Clearly the push amongst Britons to eat out and keep in motels after lockdowns ended was even larger than beforehand thought.
Other sectors the place exercise was stronger than beforehand assumed have been skilled scientific and technical actions and healthcare companies.
The business property sector, beforehand thought to have contracted throughout the 12 months in query, can also be now reckoned to have loved progress.
These revisions are actually vital by way of how we view the UK's financial efficiency.
As Simon French, the chief economist and head of analysis on the funding financial institution Panmure Gordon was fast to notice, all the UK financial narrative, post-pandemic, has simply been revised away. All these headlines in regards to the UK financial system not being again at pre-COVID ranges, or backside of the G7, at the moment are out of date.
He added: "But as a macro guy who has had to talk to international investors [about] why gilts and UK equities do or do not deserve [to trade at] a discount, this has cast huge doubt on recent investor conclusions.
"I could also be biased however this deserves to steer each UK financial and enterprise story in the present day - to offer symmetry to the protection that the sluggish post-pandemic restoration that has formed investor/enterprise/family sentiment."
That is a key level.
There has been a lot hand-wringing in latest months about why worldwide traders are shunning UK property and why some UK corporations have sought to switch their main stock market listing from London to New York.
Much of that negativity could have been knowledgeable by headlines in regards to the UK's lacklustre progress post-pandemic.
There is a phrase of warning, although. One is that the nationwide statisticians of different international locations are embarking on related revisions to their GDP statistics utilizing one thing referred to as the "SUTS" - provide and use tables - framework. This strategy is reckoned to offer a extra correct evaluation of how a specific trade or sector has carried out and, by extension, the financial system as an entire. The statistics workplaces of the UK and the US are, at current, the one ones to have achieved this.
As the ONS identified in the present day: "This means that the UK has one of the most up-to-date sets of estimates for this period of considerable economic change. Other countries follow different revision policies and practices, which can result in their estimates being revised at a later date.
"It is vital that is thought of when evaluating the UK with different international locations and our worldwide comparability place is prone to change as soon as different international locations absolutely confront their datasets over time."
And there is a broader point to make, too, which is that it is debatable whether GDP is that meaningful a measure, these days, of how the economy is doing and how all of us, as individuals, are living their lives.
As Savvas Savouri, economist at the hedge fund manager Toscafund and one of the Square Mile's smartest economists, has told clients in the recent past: "GDP is a nonsensical measure of the fashionable UK financial system … it fails to do justice to the ever-growing service-side of the UK financial system.
"After all, measuring the production of textiles is very much easier to do than capturing the volume and value of coding for gaming, e-commerce and e-finance, architectural design, writing of legal contracts, insurance underwriting, academia to students from overseas and so forth."
The ONS would likely argue, in response, that for this reason it's searching for to finesse its methodology.
And, for now, it's serving to paint a extra encouraging image of the UK financial system.
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