Wagner poised to ‘smuggle criminals’ into Poland from bases in Belarus
Russia and Belarus have overseen the switch of battle-hardened Wagner mercenaries to bases a brief drive exterior of Minsk amid the fallout from the non-public military’s abortive revolt final month.
Alongside the ranks of Wagner fighters, who took the Kremlin’s provide to maneuver to Belarus following the breakdown of the short-lived coup, are believed to be an unknown variety of Russian ex-convicts
Poland has watched occasions unfolding throughout the border in Belarus with alarm and reacted by reinforcing the nation’s frontiers.
In Warsaw, fears are mounting that the recent arrival of Wagner forces might encourage Belarusian chief Alexander Lukashenko to embark on a marketing campaign of provocations alongside the 2 international locations’ shared border.
Polish defence specialists consider {that a} attainable situation might see Belarusian authorities smuggle Wagner convicts throughout the border for the aim of committing “serious criminal offences” on Polish soil.
Dr Jacek Raubo advised Express Online: “At this point, it must also be recognized that if, in addition to experienced mercenaries, convicts also appear in Belarus, there may be an attempt to smuggle them across the border in order to commit serious criminal offences.”
The analyst added that this could pose a big threat, particularly if the convicts have been supplied with fraudulent Ukrainian paperwork concurrently.
Dr Raubo advised Express Online: “Striving to increase tensions between Polish society and Ukrainian war refugees. Especially for such a member of the Wagner Group pulled out of the Russian penitentiary system, the potential to end up in a Polish prison would not be a big problem.
“Due to the sanitary situation of Polish prisons and, above all, after the elimination of the specter of redeployment to the entrance line in Ukraine.”
Lukashenko has already been accused of carrying out a textbook “hybrid warfare operation” by ordering Belarus border guards to direct migrants to the Polish border.
Dr Raubo has also warned that the introduction of Wagner may provide Russia and Belarus with the cover needed to carry out similar clandestine operations designed to destabilise Poland, a NATO member and major backer of Ukraine.
He told Express.co.uk that the recent NATO summit in Lithuania might have presented a tempting target for the mercenary group if not for the strength of Western forces gathered to secure the gathering in Vilnius.
However, he suggested that Poland’s upcoming elections could provide Belarus, Russia and Wagner with another opportunity to undermine NATO while maintaining the cloak of plausible deniability.
Dr Raubo told Express Online: “A distinct state of affairs might happen already in September and October because of the anticipated elections in Poland. Especially because the difficulty of safety, together with border safety, is a vital factor of the political dispute in Poland.
“First of all, unfortunately, the possibility of attempted acts of violence and acts of terrorism involving the Wagner Group, or persons impersonating them, must be assumed.
“This might concern, for instance, makes an attempt to fireside at Polish border guards, troopers or policemen.
“Unfortunately, mine traps or planting well-known IEDs to assault border patrol autos, together with armoured MRAPs, will also be thought-about.