Sergei Shoigu and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s whereabouts unclear in absence of any clear route from Vladimir Putin

The mud is settling. The harm is deep. And the query stays, particularly within the absence of any clear route from Vladimir Putin – what occurs subsequent?

Expect the Kremlin to ship a bit extra of the “business as usual”, “nothing to see here” Putin diary appointment movies.

Russia-Ukraine latest: Wagner boss Prigozhin’s whereabouts unknown as rival seen for first time

We have video of the defence minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a Western command ahead working base apparently within the “special military operation zone”, supposedly this morning, although Telegram chatter is busily debating whether or not it was filmed earlier than the coup occurred.

And Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was presumably informed in no unsure phrases to maintain his head down in Belarus in the meanwhile, even when he’s not the sort who likes to maintain quiet for lengthy.

So what’s going to occur to the highest army command, who’ve simply weathered weeks of criticism and a short-lived however harmful armed rebel?

How a lot credibility do they nonetheless have within the eyes of their males when 1000’s if not lots of of 1000’s serving within the Russian armed forces will need to have watched these Prigozhin movies and felt just a few house truths?

Prigozhin was good at taking the facet of his troops, mentioning the pointlessness of the entire Ukraine train, raging towards the hideous and pointless lack of life.

That should imply an excellent deal in the event you’re sitting on the frontlines questioning in the event you’re subsequent.

Read extra:
On the streets of Moscow, people seem shaken up by Wagner Group rebellion
What does the aborted Russian mutiny mean for the war in Ukraine?

Putin famously favours loyalty and Shoigu and his chief of the overall workers Valery Gerasimov have been nothing however loyal.

The commander-in-chief may also not need to look as if he has been pressured to bow to stress, particularly not from Prigozhin who he has simply denounced as a traitor.

But there’s now hypothesis that he’s casting round for alternate options.

Governor of the Tula area, Alexei Dyumin, is a type of talked about as a attainable Shoigu successor.

If there’s a reshuffling, then it is going to most likely occur as soon as the mud has settled.

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It was additionally obvious from the entire contracts debacle that Shoigu – and subsequently Putin – will need to have determined that the Ukraine warfare might and may now solely be dealt with by the ministry of defence and that each one different freelance models, Wagner being essentially the most distinguished, needs to be integrated into the fold.

That was a sign that Shoigu was on the up.

It was most likely additionally the rationale why Prigozhin determined to likelihood it, demanding Wagner be seen on an equal however separate footing to the Russian armed forces. Folie de grandeur, maybe.

So if Putin replaces Shoigu now, he seems weaker nonetheless.

Though I’ll end with the caveat, given Saturday’s lightning occasions, that each one is unpredictable and stays so, regardless of the obvious calm of the final 24 hours.